Trust key
What the model's % has actually meant — 2021–24, 1,087 games. Find your game's % on the left, read across to the real rate.
Win probabilityhonest — trust it
45%→36%hot
55%→48%hot
65%→69%honest
75%→78%honest
Only the 45–55% coin-flips run hot — trim those toward 50. At 60%+ it's honest, if anything a touch low.
Spread coverflat — gap isn't an edge
45%→49%flat
55%→46%flat
70%→50%flat
Covers ~50% no matter what it says — the gap is noise.
Total overnoisy — only real if wind
35%→53%off
55%→48%off
74%→38%off
No pattern — don't read the gap unless wind.
Win % is your read. Cover and Total % are only useful as a gap vs the market — a big gap is a prompt to check Lines for a reason, not a bet by itself.